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Whether or not a trade truce is reached, the two countries have been pushed further apart, the former Treasury secretary said.

(副标题)前财政部长表示:无论贸易协议达成与否,这两个国家一直都在渐行渐远。

2019年11月21日

The United States and China will eventually settle their differences over tariffs — maybe even reach a deal that allows both sides to say they won.

美国和中国终将解决它们在关税上的分歧,也许甚至还能达成一项能让双方都号称他们赢了的协议。

But don’t be fooled. Even if the world’s two biggest economies reach a truce, their relationship is likely to get worse.

但别被糊弄了。就算世界最大的两个经济体达成休战协议,它们的关系也很可能会变得更糟。



“It should concern every one of us who cares about the state of the global economy that the positive-sum metaphors of healthy economic competition are giving way to the zero-sum metaphors of military competition,” he is planning to say.

他准备在演讲中说出的内容是,“我们在乎全球经济状况的每一个人都应该关切的是:健康经济竞争的正和博弈正在让位于军事竞争的零和博弈”。

Over the summer, President Trump declared on Twitter: “We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them.” He sent shock through industry when he added: “Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA.”

今年夏天,特朗普总统在推文中宣布,“我们不需要中国,坦白说,没有他们反而会好得多。”他又补充的一句震惊了整个产业:“因此我们伟大的美国公司接到了立刻开始寻找中国替代品的指令,包括把你们的公司迁回美国,并在美国生产你们的产品。”



(图解:(推文内容):“多年以来,我们的国家已经愚蠢地损失了几万亿美元给中国,他们一直以每年几千亿美元的速度窃取我们的知识产权,而且他们还想继续这么做,我是不会让这种事情发生的!我们不需要中国,坦白说,没有他们反而会好得多。几十年来,中国从美国赚取和窃取的海量金钱将会停止也必须停止。我们伟大的美国公司接到了立刻开始寻找中国替代品的指令,包括…”)

Mr. Paulson never mentions Mr. Trump by name in his speech. He is hopeful that the two sides will reach the first stage of an agreement, but he suggested that inflammatory language and the use of tariffs by both sides had been deeply damaging.

保尔森在他的演讲中绝口不提特朗普先生的名字。他寄希望于双方能达成一份第一阶段的协议,但他提示到,双方的煽动性语言和使用关税武器已经造成了严重的损害。

“Even when this is done, it won’t be the end of the story,” he said. “The very idea of tariffs has been relegitimated after taking a wallop from the dismal failures of the 1930s.” He added, “We are now living in a world where tariffs have become normalized and even applauded.”

“哪怕(关税战)结束了,也不会是故事的终结”,他表示。“在经受了三十年代惨淡失败带来的打击后,关税的概念已经完成了重新定义。”他补充道,“我们现在生活在一个关税战已经被正常化,甚至会得到喝彩的世界中。”



Mr. Paulson raised a worst-case scenario that is often dismissed by policymakers but that he believes deserves a lot more attention.

保尔森先生提出了最坏的情况,但政策制定者往往不予理会,但他相信这理应得到更多关注。

“Let’s not forget that China is a very large purchaser and holder of U.S. Treasuries,” he said, referring to China ownership of over $1 trillion in United States debt. “This helps support U.S. monetary policy, enabling lower interest rates and supporting our spending and lack of saving.”

“我们不要忘了,中国是美国国债非常大大的一个买家和持有者”,他说,他指的是中国持有着超过1万亿美国国债。“这有助于支持美国的货币政策,使美国能够定出更低的利率,还能支撑我们爱花钱却不储蓄(的生活方式)。”

Then, he addressed what virtually no United States policymaker has been willing to acknowledge aloud: If the relationship between the countries deteriorates further, China could decide to sell — or at least not buy — as many Treasury bonds, potentially sending their value down and pushing interest rates much higher. That would undoubtedly hurt China, but it could be tremendously damaging to us, an idea this column raised last year.

之后,他提出的是几乎没有任何一位美国政策制定者会愿意大声承认的事情:如果这两国间的关系进一步恶化,中国可能会决定抛售尽可能多的美国国债,或者至少不再买进,这就潜在地降低了国债的价值,还会大大推高利率。这毫无疑问会伤到中国,但这可能也会给我们带来极大的伤害,这个想法本专栏在去年提出过。

“That’s why the unilateral, reciprocal and retaliatory steps on both sides concern me so much,” Mr. Paulson said.

“这就是为什么双方祭出的那些单边的、互相悖反的报复性措施会让我如此担忧”,保尔森先生说。

Even if the United States isn’t able to accomplish all it wants in leveling the playing field with China, Mr. Paulson said, the very idea of walking away from the country is a worse outcome.

就算美国在和中国一起创造公平竞争的环境时无法尽遂其愿,保尔森先生说,但远离这个国家这种想法是一个更糟的结果。



“The delusion,” he said, “is that it will be easy or beneficial.”

“这种错觉”,他说,“在于脱钩会很简单或是脱钩会带来益处。”